What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? Last quarter’s lesson was that being rightfully defensive in Q1 didn’t help you in Q2. Q3 changed the picture all over again. Oil, which collapsed 38% in Q2, climbed back above $100

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? A quarter ago, this letter was about the Strait of Hormuz, an oil spike, a tariff ruling, and a stock market that had just posted its worst quarter in years. If you’d

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? The first quarter of 2026 was not a quarter that rewarded complacency. After two consecutive years in which the U.S. market posted outsized gains and defied nearly every bearish forecast, Q1 delivered

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? The fourth quarter of 2025 capped a year in which markets and the broader economy repeatedly defied consensus expectations. Despite tariffs, fiscal expansion, and a series of unorthodox policy interventions from Washington,

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? Patient investors were rewarded with a calmer and better third quarter after suffering through the market volatility we saw in the first half of 2025. Despite those volatile markets earlier in the

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? The second quarter of 2025 saw significant volatility that pulled markets down to multi-quarter lows and then all the way up to all-time highs. Tariff policy uncertainty and war in the Middle

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? As the U.S. Economy looks to separate itself from the rest of the world through tariffs and deportations, the markets reacted with volatility and a drop in equity prices. The S&P 500

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? Here in San Francisco we have a nickname for our beloved fog. We call it “Karl the Fog”. Karl is a symbol of the city’s resilience and adaptive nature. The name is

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? With another quarter of healthy returns under investor’s belts the spectre of a soft landing for the U.S. (and Global) economies is now closer to reality. However, this soft landing scenario has

What Did We See? Where Do We Stand? In the face of continued reductions of the number of rate cuts coming in 2024, the US market showed remarkable resilience in the second quarter. Ongoing optimism around the health of the